Track 3b

Mitigating Climate Change: Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Track Chair

Prof Alan Brent

There is now reasonable consensus that climate change, through increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is one of the most serious threats facing our society, its economy, and the natural environment it depends on. This consensus is based on observations on climate change effects, such as the increase in the average earth surface temperature, an increase in number of extreme weather events, and melting of polar ices; together with results of climate modelling studies. State-of-the-art research indicates that 50 to 70% reductions in GHG emissions are required up to the year 2050 for the target of limiting the global temperature increase to 2 °C to be met with a probability of more than 66%. Further reductions will be required after 2050, and the emission levels should peak not later than 2015. While such dramatic change requires strong policy measures to modify energy technologies, across all sectors, it will also require policies that change the behaviour of the public, commerce and industry in relation to energy use. This track will focus on these required (transition) changes in order to mainstream renewable energy, as alternative technology options, and energy efficiency, as demand-behaviour interventions, to reduce GHG emissions in the economy and thereby mitigate climate change.

Setting the scene for the track
Current demographic, economic, social, and technological trends pose major challenges to the long-term sustainability of the global energy system (IEA, 2013). If governments do not implement policies beyond those already planned between now and 2030, it is projected that:

• Energy consumption will increase by over half (53%);
• The energy mix will remain fairly stable and dominated by fossil fuels (80% share);
• Energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by over half (55%); and
• Large populations of the world's poor will continue to lack access to electricity (about 1.5 billion) and modern cooking and heating services (about 2.5 billion).

The sectoral contributors to growth in energy consumption (and emissions) are expected to be power generation (35%), industry (15%), transport (12%) and buildings (6%) in developing countries, followed by power generation (11%) and transport (6%) in OECD countries. Improving efficiency and reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions should receive early attention in these high growth areas, because these goals are easier and cheaper to attain at the time of new construction than at later retrofit stages.

Energy efficiency in end uses is indispensable, accounting for 45% of emission
reductions. Other technological contributions could be made by carbon capture and storage (CCS) in power generation and industry (20%), the use of renewables in power generation (10%), and biofuels in transport (6%).

Much literature is devoted to exploring the scope of renewable energy for domestic, industrial and commercial applications. These include solar energy for heating, drying and electricity generation, using solar thermal and photovoltaic systems; wind, ocean (tidal, wave and current); geothermal; hydropower; biomass and waste to energy; and hydrogen - for fuel cell applications.

The transfer and diffusion of clean energy technologies will require a broad portfolio of policy tools. Technology "push" alone is unlikely to deliver the large long-term emission reductions that are needed. Policies for both technology development and "market pull" are required, including price signals through taxes and economic instruments. International collaboration can pool intellectual resources and investment to enhance clean energy deployment. However, domestic policy frameworks are also important for technology deployment and diffusion. Furthermore, from a sustainable development perspective, the local context is critical. If renewable energy technologies are important to the development of sustainable societies, it is of the utmost importance that government policy-makers and business decision-makers are provided with appropriate assessment tools to enable them to quantify the contribution of renewable energy technologies to sustainability at all levels.

Contact: Prof Alan Brent acb@sun.ac.za

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